NH '08 SENATE ANALYSIS

Sen. John Sununu has $561,361 in the bank. In his 2002 race against Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, he spent $3,638,823 to her $5,837,914 and won by just under 20,000 votes. That's the extent of the good news for him.

In 2006, there was a major shift to BLUE in New Hampshire. Gov. John Lynch was re-elected with 74% of the vote. Incumbent Republicans lost both of the State's two Congressional seats. In the 1st District, after 4 years in Congress and 12 years in the State House, Jeb Bradley lost to political activist Carol Shea-Porter 52%-48%. In the 2nd District, 12 year incumbent Charles Bass lost to Paul Hodes, who was a former Shaheen political appointee 53%-45%. The combined margin of victory of the two Dem. Congressional candidates was 20,650 votes.

To further show the Democratic gains in the Granite State, the Democrats gained 6 seats in the State senate to earn a 14-10 majority. They gained 89 seats in the State House to earn a 239-150 majority.

That's one heck of a year for the Dems in New Hampshire. Should Jeanne Shaheen decide to run for Senate in 2008, the shift in voter sentiment since 2002 points to major trouble for incumbent Sen. John Sununu. This race is one to watch. Even if Shaheen decides not to run, it would not be an immediate sigh of relief for Sen. Sununu. The next few months should give us a better indication of what to expect in New Hampshire, but regardless, the Republicans must already be worried because this is a likely pickup for Dems in the US Senate.