Friday, December 22, 2006

Don't Count out Edwards

Senator Hillary Clinton holds a large lead in national polls. These numbers are meaningless right now. The polls in Iowa, however are fairly telling. The Des Moines Register recently released a poll showing John Edwards at 36% and Clinton trailing by twenty points. Obama is two points behind Clinton. This is extremely good news for Edwards.

Despite Edwards' standing in Iowa, most national media coverage focuses only on Senators Clinton and Obama. They are unknowingly providing tremendous help to Edwards in downplaying expectations.

Two factors play into the Iowa Caucus: winning the vote and winning the expectations game. Things may change over the course of the next year, but if Edwards wins outright, then he will almost certainly beat expectations as well. John Kerry, in effect, won the nomination the night he won the Iowa Caucus. Edwards could expect the same bump out of Iowa that Kerry received.

That, combined with Edwards' extensive work with Labor over the past two years would serve him well in both Nevada and New Hampshire. If he were to win all three and then cap it all off with a victory in South Carolina, where he won in 2004, then he could be unstoppable to win the nomination.

For Edwards, it may just come down to winning it all in Iowa.


Michael said...

I sure hope that Edwards is the Democratic nominee, especially since it seems more and more that Al Gore won't run. We need a progressive like Edwards, who also cares about the least amongst us, working people's issues, a sane foreign policy and common sense government. Plus, he seems to have a fairly decent records on GLBT issues. I deplore Hillary "Triangulation" Clinton and to me she is the female John McCain and McCain is the female Hillary..they will say anything and do anything to get elected.

Obama's book has less "Audacity" in it..not a lot of ideas and his evangelical tones scare me..and I don't see a lot of depth to him (nor could I decipher a lot of his views since he obfuscates them in double speak). A great speaker isn't always the best leader. Obama would be a good VP choice for Edwards..but I sure am hoping Edwards does exactly what you have an excellent keen eye on the issues. Plus, you know South Carolina politics, having been a Congressional staffer from there.

fingers crossed and keep up the good work on your blog. I read it daily. On another note, thank you for your service to our country..your efforts created a Democratic Congress and as a proud Gay man I am extremely proud that you as a Gay man stood up and did the right thing concerning Mark Foley!! We need more heroes like you to step forward and do the right thing!

Farrell said...

I disagree strongly. If Edwards maintains an Iowa lead all it does is contribute to a sense that he will win the caucus easily and then anything less than a romp will damage him.

Hillary could decide to skip Iowa altogether and head straight to New Hampshire or Nevada or interestingly South Carolina and then launch her campaign from there. California and New Jersey are earlier in the process and will benefit someone with A LOT of money.

So, Edwards Iowa lead could actually do him a disservice this far out.

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