The McCain Doctrine

Newly minted Presidential candidate John Edwards today showed his political prowess and willingness to play hardball. In an interview on ABC's This Week, Edwards took on Republican frontrunner John McCain:

"I actually, myself, believe that this idea of surging troops, escalating the war -- what Senator McCain has been talking about -- what I would call now the McCain doctrine ... (is) dead wrong," said Edwards.

Some of the criticism that progressives have had with an Edwards candidacy is that he is "too soft." This direct challenge to McCain should help quell some of those concerns. That it is also couched in terms of ending the war in Iraq should also further his credibility with progressives.

This tactic should also show that Edwards is in this to win it. I'll be looking forward to how this will play out. So far, there's no comment from McCain.

A New Way

Check out my very first post on Huffington Post! It provides a little insight on John Edwards' announcement yesterday in New Orleans.

Happy New Year!

Welcome Madame Speaker

Nancy Pelosi will be sworn in as the first female Speaker of the House of Representatives on January 4th. This is an incredibly historic moment that we should be very proud of. She has worked very hard for our Party and our country. She is disciplined, focused, and politically talented. After successfully raising SIX children, I believe she is capable of anything.

Such an historic moment merits celebration. Accordingly, the Speaker-Elect has planned four days of diverse events to honor the occasion of her ascension to one of the most powerful positions in government. Many of these events are as simple as a dinner with her family, mass at her old Church in Baltimore, the renaming of the street she lived on as a kid, a meeting with female legislators from around the nation, and a non-denominational church service on Capitol Hill. Of course, there will be a glitzy fundraiser to pad the bank account of the DCCC. There's even a party at the Italian Embassy. So what?

The Republicans can't stand it. Here's an excerpt from the Washington Post where Republican flack Mike Murphy shows how utterly bitter his party is to see Pelosi take the Speaker's gavel:

Mike Murphy, a Republican political consultant and former adviser to Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), said the four-day extravaganza is excessive. "What? No fireworks?" he said. "I'm glad they canceled the tickertape parade. They probably couldn't find biodegradable tickertape and a hybrid convertible."

He said the schedule is "classic Pelosi."

"She's not known for a light touch," he said. "She has every right to throw a new-speaker celebration, but it's 500 percent from what is normal. It's an aggressive act to grab the spotlight. Sounds to me like there's nobody at the meetings saying, 'Maybe that's a little too much.' She's needs a deputy chief of staff from the 'It's Not About You' department."

What's his problem? He must not think it's necessary for the newly elected Speaker of the House to pay homage to the people and traditions that laid the foundation for her successful political career. It must be the Republican notion that people who achieve success 'deserve it.' Instead of showing an appreciation for diversity, the Republicans would hold a long series of fundraisers with their hands held wide open to collect fat checks from K Street attached to legislation written by lobbyists for their corporate clients.

Times are changing and they can't stand it. Welcome, Madame Speaker!

Don't Count out Edwards

Senator Hillary Clinton holds a large lead in national polls. These numbers are meaningless right now. The polls in Iowa, however are fairly telling. The Des Moines Register recently released a poll showing John Edwards at 36% and Clinton trailing by twenty points. Obama is two points behind Clinton. This is extremely good news for Edwards.

Despite Edwards' standing in Iowa, most national media coverage focuses only on Senators Clinton and Obama. They are unknowingly providing tremendous help to Edwards in downplaying expectations.

Two factors play into the Iowa Caucus: winning the vote and winning the expectations game. Things may change over the course of the next year, but if Edwards wins outright, then he will almost certainly beat expectations as well. John Kerry, in effect, won the nomination the night he won the Iowa Caucus. Edwards could expect the same bump out of Iowa that Kerry received.

That, combined with Edwards' extensive work with Labor over the past two years would serve him well in both Nevada and New Hampshire. If he were to win all three and then cap it all off with a victory in South Carolina, where he won in 2004, then he could be unstoppable to win the nomination.

For Edwards, it may just come down to winning it all in Iowa.

Turn On Your Electronic Devices

In light of the Holiday Season and all of the travelling associated with it, I have come up with a new mission that I hope you will join me in. It's not going to cause world peace or cure cancer, but I think it's a sensible idea.

We've all been annoyed by the "turn off all electronic devices" announcement on an airplane. Instead of just accepting the nuisance, did you ever stop to think about it? I politely asked a flight attendant yesterday if it was an FAA policy to require that announcement. She wasn't sure. But she went on to explain that "they don't know exactly how it might affect the navigation equipment on the planes."

Hmmmm. If I cell phone or iPod can cause a plane to crash, I don't want to be on it. And, given the highly technological age that we live in and the millions of passengers that travel by air, the FAA should know exactly how these electronic devices affect navigation equipment. My prediction is they don't. Seriously, the girl across the aisle from me was playing Solitaire on her Treo and we didn't even lose cabin pressure.

I'm going to be doing some research into this and will update once I know more. But, it's probably high time for the FAA to do away with an arcane rule that will allow us to enjoy our iPods uninterrupted from one terminal to another.

UPDATE:
Thanks to Josh Lurie for sending me a link to this Wired article. Seems as though things like pace makers and hearing aids could cause some of the same unfounded interference that our more entertaining electronic devices do. Yet the FAA doesn't ban the hard of hearing or the faint of heart. (no offense meant, it just sounded natural!)

Global Warming is a Conspiracy Theory

Global warming is real. But, it just might, maybe be a vast-right conspiracy.

In recent years, population trends have seen major growth in Coastal areas. The two biggest Democratic voting areas are the Coasts, and large population centers. Should the ice caps melt and the water level rise, the entire Democratic vote could drown!

That's why Republican have prevented clean fuel research, better gas mileage standards, and alternative energy resources. It's a conspiracy I tell you!! :)

Nevada Dems Enjoy Early Caucus

The Las Vegas Review Journal has an article which includes a brief story on the expectations that Nevada Democrats has from being the beneficiary of an early Democratic Caucus. This summer, the Rules and Bylaws Committee, followed shortly by the full Democratic National Committee, established two early nomination contests in addition to the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary. Nevada will host an early Caucus. South Carolina will finally join Republicans with the First in the South Primary, after a trial run in 2004.

They are right to be excited about the benefits this will bring.

South Carolina Democrats watched for many election cycles as the "First in the South" Republican Presidential Primary slowly contributed to the decline of the Democratic Party in their State. With the increasing importantance of the contest, the Republican Primary began to draw major media attention. That meant any Republican wanting to run for President had to make numerous pilgrimages to the Palmetto State.

The Republican candidates raised money for the State Republican Party and were very generous to SC Republican candidates throughout the State. The media attention contributed to crowd building and an ever-present energy on the Republican side. Young Republican politicos were pursued by Presidential candidates to staff their campaigns. Many of those landed senior positions in Republican Administrations in Washington. Over time, SC Republicans have grown to have major influence in Republican Presidential politics and that has helped them in every way that you can imagine.

The average voter, perhaps even someone who votes in every election does not understand the Presidential nominating process. I believe that for years, many of these people came to their own conclusions about why the Democrats weren't participating in the hoopla surrounding the Republican Primary. Were the Democrats not running anyone for President? Did the Democrats not have anybody good enough to run? Had the Democrats run out of money? Perhaps the Democrats were just ignoring South Carolina.....

Not one of these conclusions is favorable for the Democrats. It would have been hopeless to explain to the voters what was going on. Over the years, this was a major factor in South Carolina going from a One Party State to a One Party State.

Nevada Democrats should enjoy their newly earned status. But don't tell the Republicans! Maybe it'll take them as long as it did for us to in South Carolina!

"YOU"

This post is a little self indulgent, BUT, I would like to make a point with it.

Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2006 is "You" in the sense that in the New Age of Digital Democracy, "You" can make a difference. I was one of 15 people profiled by Time as fitting the mold of the "You" Person of the Year. It's quite an honor. Frankly, I'm floored.

BUT, and here's my point, Time is exactly right. Each and everyone of us has the ability to influence public debate, make someone's life better, or somehow make a difference. At our fingertips, we all have the ability to reach countless numbers of people.

Two questions come to mind. Will you join the new Age of Digital Democracy? And, will you use it with the ultimate aim of improving the world we live in?

You should. You never know what will happen from your efforts.

Obama Reportedly Fears for Life

MSNBC ran a snippet of a report claiming that Sen. Barack Obama "fears for his life" should he make a run for the White House. While this sounds dramatic, it shows that he is seriously considering all of the possible ramifications of his candidacy for President and could be a sign that he is close to making a decision.

Read the rest on my recent post on www.MyDD.com in the Breaking Blue Section!

Happy Holidays!

As we head into the Holiday Season, I just wanted to take a moment to wish everyone on the Left a happy and joyous season. The new year will bring us a brand new Congress that will be more fair, ethical, and responsible. Yay!

A friend send me this link and I wanted to pass it on to you as a way to wish you a Happy Holiday. Please check it out, it's so cute and funny. You may want to use it yourself to pass around to friends and family.

Fair and Balanced....

Yeah right!

One need look no further than Fox News Channel for the Republican National Committee's daily talking points. Think Progress has a video clip showing the Fox News Anchors doing their best to make a case for removing Sen. Tim Johnson from office. Heck, they've even talked to the South Dakota Secretary of State!

While the Republicans gaveled the 109th Congress to a close without accomplished, well, anything really.....they still have the time to try and steal a Senate seat from a duly elected Democrat during a time of medical crisis. That's pathetic.

DEMS WILL RETAIN SENATE

Democrats will maintain their newly earned Majority in the United States Senate. Initial reports by the media that South Dakota Governor Mike Rounds could choose to replace Senator Johnson prior to the new session of Congress on January 4 is incorrect. According to Senate Historian Donald Ritchie, there is no precedent for a Governor replacing a Senator unless he has received a "letter of resignation or a death certificate."

Aside from the Main Stream Media needing to keep us glued to our televisions, no one is discussing the possibility of Sen. Johnson's death.

Additionally, I'm hearing further reports that Sen. Elizabeth Dole will not be present for the opening session of the Senate. Either way, the Democrats will still have more votes than the Republicans, therefore maintaining the majority.

SEN. TIM JOHNSON

I just wanted to give folks an update on Sen. Johnson and some insight into the situation.

CNN has just reported the following things:

Upon returning to the Capitol, incoming Majority Leader, Harry Reid, said that Sen. Johnson "looked very good."

Dr. Sanjay Gupta gave some medical insight on his condition. The surgery that Sen. Johnson underwent has two major goals. First is to remove the blood from the hemorrhage that occurred. The second is to remove the tangled mass of veins that caused the hemorrhage. He says that if the surgery is successful, then a recurrence is not likely.

Andrea Mitchell spoke to the Senate Historian. When the new Congress comes into session on January 4, it is up to Republican S.D. Governor, Mike Rounds to determine if Sen. Johnson is fit to serve. If he is able to take his position in the new Congress, there is no precedent for his removal from office. She even referenced another S.D. Senator who took two full years of medical leave.

Given all this information, I feel more confident that the Democrats will maintain the slim majority in the Senate. George Washington Hospital is known as one of the best hospitals in the future. Since Sen. Johnson was not just re-elected, he will not be required to take an oath of office for the new session of Congress. Further, even if he is not able to be in attendance the first day of Congress, the Democrats can reorganize with a 50-49 majority. This is sufficient to take majority status and appoint Committees and Committee Chairs. All indications are that Sen. Johnson can recover from this, thought it may take as many as a few months.

*****UPDATE: I hear that Sen. Elizabeth Dole will not be in the Senate Chamber on January 4, as she finishes her recovery from hip replacement surgery. If that is the case, and I'm waiting to hear back from her office, then the actual vote to reorganize the Senate will be 50-48, still giving the Democrats the authority to claim Majority status.

Rather than seeking a cheap political opportunity, let's hope the Republicans will allow Senator Johnson, his family and his staff the chance to help him throughout his recovery so he cal return to his full duties in the U.S. Senate.

DOLE HAS HIP REPLACED

The Raleigh News and Observer reports on Sen. Elizabeth Dole's hip replacement surgery. This is yet another sign that Dole will not seek re-election.

I continue to stand by my assertion that she will not be a candidate for re-election in 2008. You read it here first.

BUSH "Won't be rushed...."

Our not so esteemed Commander in Chief, in the midst of consultations on Iraq, valiantly declared that he won't be rushed to a decision regarding Iraq. He began the press conference nearly twenty minutes late, seeming to underscore that point.

But, then he revealed during the question and answer period that he changed his speech at the last minute. He even declared something along the lines of "I didn't know what I wanted to say." So, he reverted to the same overused message that has driven his approval rating to a permanent home in the 30's.

We've now been in Iraq for nearly half a decade. "Mission Accomplished" was declared by Bush so long ago that I barely remember it. Nearly 3,000 American soldiers have paid the ultimate price for Bush's Iraq policy. Tens of thousands of others are injured, some permanently disabled.

This President was sent a very loud message by Americans on November 7. Instead of insisting he won't be rushed, he needs to be asking "how quickly can I rush?" Instead, the arrogance and short-sightedness of Bush and his Administration still dominate his public comments.

How many more lives will we lose and how many more billions will we spend before the Commander in Chief loses his political tone deafness? Bush doesn't seem to care how long it takes. Not a good sign.

SIGN MOVEON'S PETITION

This petition , which is being circulated by MoveOn.org relates to the 13th Congressional District in Florida, which I posted about last night. Please take a moment to urge Congress to call for a "re-vote" in that badly botched Congressional election.

Please also take a moment to visit Democrat Christine Jennings' website. I had the opportunity to meet her a few weeks ago. She's charming, intelligent, sharp, compassionate, hard working, successful.....I could go on and on. Christine is exactly the kind of representative the folks of Florida's 13th District need after right wing nut-turned Senate candidate Katharine Harris.

SHOULD WE FEEL BAD?

The Albany Times-Union has an article that details the mental state of Congressman John Sweeney following his defeat by Democrat Kirstin Gillibrand. It sounds like he's gone off the deep end.

It almost makes me feel sorry for him. ALMOST. Let's not forget that Sweeney, along with other Republicans, have run the government and their campaigns with hate, fear, and lies. Their defeat in the midterm election was a victory for hope, fairness, and truth.

No, we shouldn't feel bad. Not at all.

CO '08 SENATE ANALYSIS

In 2002, Sen. Wayne Allard was re-elected with 51% and spent $5.2 million. Tom Strickland, the Democratic nominee spent $5.1 million and garnered 47% of the vote. Also re-elected that year was Republican Governor Bill Owens, earning 63%.

Things have gone downhill BIG TIME for the Republicans since then.

In 2004, Democrat Ken Salazar was elected to the U.S. Senate over Republican Pete Coors 51%-47%, the same margin as Allard's victory two years before. The Dems also picked up a Congressional seat, with John Salazar winning in CO-03. Furthering the Democratic victories, they claimed a majority in both chambers of the State Legislature.

The political landscape improved even more for Colorado Dems in 2006. Ed Perlmutter won the open seat in Colorado's 7th Congressional District, vacated by Congressman Bob Beauprez, who was the Republican candidate for Governor. He lost to Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter 56%-41%. Democrats also added to their majorities in the Legislature.

As Colorado has trended significantly bluer than it was in 2002, Republicans must be about ready to write this Senate race off. Sen. Wayne Allard has a paltry $122,476 cash on hand. The most likely Democratic candidate, Congressman Mark Udall, has TEN TIMES that amount in his campaign account.

This is a prime pick up opportunity for the Democrats. Let the race begin!

FL-13 DEBACLE

The 13th Congressional District of Florida is currently held by outgoing Representative Katharine Harris. Republican Vern Buchanan has been declared the winner over Democrat Christine Jennings by a margin of 369 votes after a mandatory recount. Political Insider has great information and background on this.

This recount consisted of counting the absentee and challenged ballots again as well as adding up the tapes from the electronic voting machines. The real issue at hand in this election is 18,000 "undervotes" in Sarasota County in the Congressional race. This means that 18,000 people cast ballots that did not register a vote for a candidate in the Congressional race. This is far outside of any reasonably expected undervote. But, because of the electronic voting machines, there is no paper trail to properly investigate why this has happened.

There are reports that initial testing on the machines, by conducting a mock election, have shown some of the same problems found in the actual election. This alone should cause enough concern for a re-vote.

Christine Jennings has contested the election in court. Should the courts fail to order a re-vote, which means a new election open only to those who voted on November 7, then Jennings should appeal to the U.S. House of Representatives to decide the election. By any statistical analysis, Jennings should have won the election in FL-13. There is precedent for the House deciding contested races.

Further, this adds to a mounting body of evidence, giving us credible reason to doubt the dependability of electronic voting. Our desire for instant results has replaced the necessity for integrity in the process and is a significant threat to the nature of elections in the United States. This must be addressed. Soon.

EXHIBIT 10

I'm still pouring through the 92 pages of the Ethics Committee report, but, thanks to Wonkette, I jumped ahead to the Exhibit list. My old blog, Stop Sex Predators is listed as Exhibit 10.

Alex Pareene, over at Wonkette loves the fact that ABC News is Exhibit 12, AFTER Wonkette being Exhibit 11. Somewhere in that post he mentions that they were first.

Ummmmm, at least one of your readers knew who was REALLY first. ;)

ANDERSON COOPER

Here is my segment on Anderson Cooper 360 on December 8. It's my first Live television appearance.

ETHICS COMMITTEE REACTION

The House Ethics Committee has indeed come to the conclusion that no rules were broken throughout the multi-year mismanagement of Mark Foley's immoral, unethical, and inappropriate behavior. They have instead opted to find the GOP Leadership "negligent" in protecting teens.

For years, the reputation of the House Ethics Committee has declined to the point that some people have begun calling the Committee irrelevant. Their findings in this investigation is just as negligent as the actions of the Republican Leaders.

The rules of the House clearly state that the House of Representatives, its Members, Officers, and staff, act "in loco parentis" for House Pages. At the moment that Congressman Rodney Alexander allowed the Louisiana page's parents to quash any action against Foley, he broke House Rules. When House officers and Leadership allowed this to stand, they all joined in failing to provide a safe environment for House Pages.

Could someone explain to me how you can find the Leadership "negligent" and then say they broke no rules? I realize that this report will have little impact on the political landscape. But, the Republicans missed an opportunity to show that they are willing to accept responsibility for a total breakdown in the system. Further, they have sent a very loud message to parents that they do not put a high priority on the safety of their children.

The only good thing about this report is that it finally ends this long, shameful saga.

FOLEY REPORT AT 2PM

The AP is reporting that the Ethics Committee has found the GOP Leadership negligent in their handling of the House Page scandal, but say that they didn't break any House Rules. I'm waiting until the press conference to comment.

NM '08 Senate Analysis

Sen. Pete Domenici was re-elected in 2002 with 65% of the vote and spent $4,144,286 to do it. He was first elected in 1972. By 2008, he will have served 36 years. Should he run for re-election, he would be highly favored to win another term.

However, rumors are circulating that he will retire. These rumors are likely true. Domenici is losing the Chairmanship of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee as well as the Chairmanship of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development. Given his diminished leadership capacity in the new Senate, he may want to enjoy retirement with his wife, eight children, and probably dozens of grandchildren.

If predictions of his retirement are correct, this is another prime pick-up for Democrats. New Mexico has become increasingly Democratic under Gov. Bill Richardson. Statewide, Democrats hold the offices of Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, State Auditor, State Treasurer, Attorney General, and one U.S. Senate Seat.

This year, Gov. Richardson and U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman were re-elected with 69% and 71%, respectively. Democrats also have a healthy majority in both chambers of the Legislature.

Democrats hold only one of the State's three Congressional seats. Republican Heather Wilson, of NM's First District won re-election by less then 900 votes. She will likely face another stiff challenge in 2008.

Should Gov. Richardson fore go a Presidential run and instead opt for a Senate campaign, this seat is his for the taking. He is highly popular in New Mexico and would be a shoo-in. He would be an immediately effective member of the Senate, having served in the U.S. House, as Secretary of Energy, and as U.N. Ambassador. Service in the Senate would further his Presidential ambitions.

If Richardson chooses not to run, the most likely candidate would be Congressman Tom Udall. He has faced token opposition for his seat in Congress over the past few cycles and has $737,280 in his campaign account, which could all be transferred to a Senate campaign, giving him a big head start.

Either way, Domenici's retirement means the Dems will likely pick this Senate seat.

DEMS LOOK GOOD FINANCIALLY

Below, I'm going to post notable numbers from newly filed finance reports, which cover money spent through 11/27/06. Not everything is available, so I'll fill in the blanks as I get more information. First look shows the Democrats in good shape as we begin to look towards maintaining and expanding our majorities in Congress.

PARTY COMMITTEES
DNC: $4,736,131 Cash on Hand
RNC:

DSCC:
NRSC:

DCCC: $2,267,150 Cash on Hand
NRCC: $1,357,949 Cash on Hand

Check out Political Money Line for some interesting numbers on PACs by Presidential Hopefuls. I would offer just one caveat, though. Those PAC's existed to pay for travel, provide support to State Parties, and to make contributions to candidates, ALL with the idea of earning support for a potential Presidential run. Money from these PAC's cannot be transferred to a Presidential campaign committee, so unspent money is money that could have been used to influence some close races that we lost.

RALEIGH NEWS & OBSERVER

Blog puts Dole run in doubt
http://www.newsobserver.com/102/story/518975.html

Now the rumors are swirling.

Seems U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole is allegedly so demoralized by the Republicans' losses in the U.S. Senate that a "confidential source on Capitol Hill" told a blogger this week she won't seek re-election in 2008.

The blogger, Lane Hudson, broke the scandal about U.S. Rep. Mark Foley, the Florida Republican who became close to high school pages. Now, the former congressional aide and Democratic activist is writing a liberal blog called "News for the Left."

He wrote Tuesday that Dole was too upset to run again.

Dole, of Salisbury, took some lumps in November. As chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, she was held responsible for keeping the Senate in GOP control. Last week, she sent out a fundraising letter asking for help because the committee went into debt.

But Dole said the week of Election Day that she already has begun thinking about a re-election bid. And her office reiterated this week: Dole will go after a second term.

I CAN'T RESIST.....

A friend forwarded me this. I'm not entirely sure what the source is, but I think it's The Hotline.

"The truth is a lot of reports in Washington aren't read by anybody. To show you how important this report is, I read it." -- Pres. Bush, on the ISG report, at this a.m.’s presser, mult, 12/7.

Priceless, huh?

CONNECT YOUR BRAIN TO THE INTERNET?

Today, the Center for American Progress hosted a panel titled "Mind Wars: Brain Research and National Defense." CAP Senior Fellow Jonathan Moreno, Ph.D. gave a run down on his book and fellow panelist Jennifer Bard, a law professor at Texas Tech University, gave a legal analysis of advances in neuroscience research as applied to real life situations.

The most shocking comment came from panelist Paul Root Wolpe, Ph.D. when he said that it "is realistic that in ten to fifteen years, it could be possible to directly connect the human brain to the internet." He cited current research where neuroscientists are able to bypass lesions in the brain by connecting two sections of the brain by man made circuitry.

Despite such an earth shaking advancement being possibly a decade away, there exists no body of ethical oversight OR laws governing such research. The biggest sponsor of this type of research is the Federal Government, often funding scientific studies through the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, DARPA.

Techniques currently in development include functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, or fMRI. It takes pictures of brain activity in real time and is being used to learn reactions of the brain to figure out if someone is lying, their sexual orientation, if they have racist tendencies, if they are extroverted, and countless other things. It is the closest that we have come to "mind reading."

DARPA is funding an "Enhanced Human Performance" project. Augmenting cognition, or increasing brain function, is one of the goals of this project. This can be accomplished by inserting a chip in a soldier's brain and increasing the bandwidth of brain activity.

The drug Modanafil has also been developed and can keep people awake for days at a time without the need for sleep or calories. This has already been made available in the private sector under the name Provigil.

This barely scratches the surface of an emerging issue about which the Center for American Progress hopes to begin a public discussion. The potential implications of this issue on civil liberties is enormous. It warrants much scrutiny until acceptable legal and ethical standards are created. There should also be a balance between using these new advances for national defense and using it in the private sector where it can be used to improve the lives of everyday Americans.

BLUE XMAS (tree) FOR HASTERT

The Congressional Christmas Tree Lighting was last night. For Hastert, he lamented that in nine years as Speaker, that this was one of the duties he most looked forward to because it began a season of hope. It seemed like a somewhat sad event for him since it was his last time to light the Tree.

As if things weren't bad enough for the Republicans, when Hastert pushed the button to light the tree, all assembled looked up to see a BLUE Christmas Tree!

Apparently, GE donated the lights to the tree. The donated lights were red, white, and blue. But, the blue lights completely overpowered everything else. I'll be on Capitol Hill tonight and will definately be checking this out! I'll get a picture if I can, so check back this evening to see if I was able to.

MN '08 Senate Analysis

Sen. Norm Coleman has $1,782,367 cash on hand, ranking him 6th out of the 21 Republicans up in '08. That's a good start, but both he and the Democratic candidate will have a lot of work to do in the fundraising department. In the 2002 Campaign, Coleman spent $10,035,279. Sen. Paul Wellstone and Former V.P. Walter Mondale spent a combined $14,479,445.

Coleman was victorious over replacement candidate Mondale 50%-47%, a margin of 61,271 votes.

In the 2006 election, there was plenty of good news for the Democrats. Amy Klobuchar, a Hennepin County prosecutor thumped Congressman Mark Kennedy 58%-38%, winning by 440,342 votes. In that election, Kennedy spent, as of Oct. 18, $8,971,258. As of the same date, Klobuchar spent $7.383,982.

The Democrats also picked up one Congressional seat, with Tim Walz defeating Congressman Gili Gutknecht. This gave the Dems a 5-3 majority in the State's Congressional Delegation. Statewide, Democratic Congressional candidates garnered 228,124 more votes than their Republican counterparts.

In the State Legislative races, Democrats also did very well. Six seats were picked up in the State Senate to strengthen the Dem majority to a 44-23 margin. Dems went from one seat down in the House to flip 19 seats and end up with a strong 85-49 majority.

Looking forward to '08, the overall trend is Democratic. Look at the highlighted margins of victory in 2006 compared to Coleman's margin in 2002. Comedian Al Franken has expressed an interest in being the Democratic candidate. While it would be a somewhat unorthodox candidacy, Franken could be a good fit for Minnesota politics. MN voters have been known to be somewhat "quirky" in the past. Franken also has the potential to be a prolific fundraiser, tapping into MN money, celebrity money, Washington money, and perhaps supporting his campaign personally as well.

Minnesota's '08 Senate campaign promises to be very interesting, especially if Franken is the Democratic candidate. This will surely be one that Republicans will concentrate significant effort to hold, but it will be a major challenge for them to do so. Democrats will be looking to consolidate their majority in the U.S. Senate, and Minnesota is one of the top targets for them to gain a seat.

NH '08 SENATE ANALYSIS

Sen. John Sununu has $561,361 in the bank. In his 2002 race against Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, he spent $3,638,823 to her $5,837,914 and won by just under 20,000 votes. That's the extent of the good news for him.

In 2006, there was a major shift to BLUE in New Hampshire. Gov. John Lynch was re-elected with 74% of the vote. Incumbent Republicans lost both of the State's two Congressional seats. In the 1st District, after 4 years in Congress and 12 years in the State House, Jeb Bradley lost to political activist Carol Shea-Porter 52%-48%. In the 2nd District, 12 year incumbent Charles Bass lost to Paul Hodes, who was a former Shaheen political appointee 53%-45%. The combined margin of victory of the two Dem. Congressional candidates was 20,650 votes.

To further show the Democratic gains in the Granite State, the Democrats gained 6 seats in the State senate to earn a 14-10 majority. They gained 89 seats in the State House to earn a 239-150 majority.

That's one heck of a year for the Dems in New Hampshire. Should Jeanne Shaheen decide to run for Senate in 2008, the shift in voter sentiment since 2002 points to major trouble for incumbent Sen. John Sununu. This race is one to watch. Even if Shaheen decides not to run, it would not be an immediate sigh of relief for Sen. Sununu. The next few months should give us a better indication of what to expect in New Hampshire, but regardless, the Republicans must already be worried because this is a likely pickup for Dems in the US Senate.

POLITICAL IMPACT OF MARY CHENY BABY

Today we learned that Mary Cheney and her long-time partner, Heather Poe are expecting their first child. The Washington post quoted a Cheney spokesperson as saying "the vice president and Mrs. Cheney are looking forward with eager anticipation to the arrival of their sixth grandchild."

There was no comment on whether this development would soften Vice President Cheney's position on equal rights for same sex couples. Since Mary Cheney is carrying the child, she will have full parental rights for the child. Her partner will have no legal rights under the laws of Virginia. Further, the constitutional amendment recently passed by the voters of the Commonwealth will further complicates any efforts by Cheney and Poe to establish by legal contract, rights such as custody, medical decisions, and inheritance.

NFTL in NJ's Hotline

Below is an article in today's Hotline, which is published by National Journal. The very first post on NFTL has seemed to cause quite a stir in Sen. Dole's office. I stand by my original source that she will not be running for re-election. Please see my post from yesterday which outlines a host of reasons why her statement is suspect at best.

NORTH CAROLINA: I'd Appreciate It If You'd Stop Nudging Me

Blogger Lane Hudson, who was first to publish ex-Rep. Mark Foley's (R-FL) page e-mail exchanges, cites a "confidential source on Capitol Hill" that outgoing NRSC chair Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) has become so "completely demoralized" that she is no longer interested in standing for re-election. Dole's office responded via e-mail that "Senator Dole is running for re-election in 2008" (RawStory.com, 12/5).

SENATE DEMS LOOK GOOD IN '08

In a preliminary analysis of '08 Senate candidates' campaign finances, Democrats enjoy an early financial advantage. It is widely expected that all twelve Democratic incumbents will seek re-election to their seats, leaving no open seats to defend. That alone is a great financial advantage compared to the Republicans who will have to defend 21 seats overall, with as many as four possible open seats to defend due to retirements.

Of the eleven Democratic incumbents, at of the end of September, their total cash on hand is $12,773,450 or an average of $1,064.454. Not taken into account of these totals are two things. First, Sen. Frank Lautenberg has a debt of $1,090,000 that is not a part of the overall numbers. Also, Sen. John Kerry has $13,807,188 left in his Presidential Campaign account. It is unclear if he can/would transfer this entire amount to his Senate campaign. In recent days, it has been speculated that he is moving further away from a campaign for President.

On the Republican side, the total cash on hand for their 21 Senators is $20,153, 373 or an average of $953,112. Not taken into account in this calculation is a debt of $1,536,802 carried by Sen. Gordon Smith of OR's campaign.

The more interesting numbers are the Republican incumbents who potentially face serious challenges from Democrats in '08 or the potential retiring incumbents. For those purposes, I have included these Republicans in those categories:

Potential Retirements: Wayne Allard, CO; Elizabeth Dole, NC; Pete Domenici, NM; John Warner, VA

Potentially Weak Incumbents: Lamar Alexander, TN; Thad Cochran, MS; Norm Coleman, MN; Larry Craig, ID; John Sununu, NH

The total that these nine Senators have in the bank is $5,573,278 or an average of $508,142.

If you include two more factors in this preliminary analysis, the picture gets more grim for the Republicans. The Republicans likely face a more difficult challenge to retire the debt at the National Republican Senatorial Committee than do the Democrats at the DSCC. It will also face the daunting task of assisting in nearly twice as many campaign as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Also, a large majority of the Democrats running for re-election either serve in the Leadership, enjoy a Committee Chairmanship, or have influential Subcommittee Chairmanships. This will further aid them in individual fundraising efforts.

Check back at News For the Left for further analysis of individual races over the next several days.

Initial WH Reaction to Iraq Report

The White House held a press conference to respond to the report issued by the bipartisan Iraq Study Group. They spoke at length on their recommendations in the Hart Senate Office Building Hearing room.

Bush spokesman, Tony Snow responded to a question by NBC’s David Gregory that “The President’s position is not ‘stay the course.’” Think Progress has an excellent timeline of how often the President has used ‘stay the course.’

As public support for Bush and the Iraq War declined, the White House replaced ‘stay the course’ with a new term, attempting to put the Democrats on the defense. In a September 28 campaign appearance in Alabama, Bush said “The party of FDR has now become the party of cut and run.” Media Matters and Raw Story have interesting background on ‘cut and run.’

The initial reaction from the White House is one of denial. Big surprise.

PELOSI'S NEXT CHALLENGE

This is from today's edition of National Journal's Hotline:

Pelosi's Third Ethical Quandry

Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), who is being investigated by the FBI, is in line to take over the House panel that sets the bureau's budget. Mollohan is the ranking Dem on the appropriations subcommittee overseeing the DoJ, which includes the FBI. This "pending appointment poses an ethical dilemma" for Pelosi, who helped fellow Dems win by "vowing to clean up" Capitol Hill's "culture of corruption."

CREW exec dir Melanie Sloan: "If the Democrats want to be taken seriously as the party of ethics reform, then every time one of their members gets into trouble, they're going to have to take it seriously." A Pelosi spokesperson didn't respond to requests for comment, while Mollohan's office and the DoJ "declined to comment" (Faler/Forsythe, Bloomberg News, 12/5).


Nancy Pelosi doesn't really need another barrage of speculation as to whether she will be appointing ethically challenged Democrats to Chair anything. After all of the negative press following her endorsement of Rep. Jack Murtha, then the annoyingly drawn out Intelligence Committee saga, this will be disposed of in quick measure.

By passing over Mollohan, Pelosi can name Rep. Jose Serrano, further reaching out to the Hispanic Caucus. Given the ever-increasing Hispanic population in the U.S. and their increased support of the Democratic Party in the midterm election, this appointment would make a great deal of sense. It would also not be likely to anger the Congressional Black Caucus, as the only member of the Caucus on the Subcommittee is last in line for the post.

This seems to be a win-win-win for Pelosi.

UPDATE ON LIDDY

News site raw story linked to my post about Dole not seeking re-election. They have received a one line statement from Sen. Elizabeth Dole's office stating only that she apparently will stand for re-election in 2008. They must not be very excited about it because their pathetic response lacked any evidence of her enthusiasm for seeking re-election, much less a defense of the god-awful job she did running the National Republican Senatorial Committee. It didn't even refute my source's comments that she is "completely demoralized" by the stunning defeat her party saw at the poll's in November.

Here's the backstory:

A quick glance at her most recent FEC Campaign Finance Report summary shows that Dole only has $223,775 cash on hand as of 9/30/06.

Her support of fellow Republicans is pathetic too. She has contributed a measly $8k to Republican Senate candidates. That includes $3K to Suzanne Terrell back in her unsuccessful run-off against Dem Sen. Mary Landrieu in 2002. Since then, she's given $4K to Sen. Jon Kyl of AZ and $1K to unsuccessful Senate candidate Michael Steel of MD.

A more indepth look of how enthusiastically her colleagues are to support her is even more telling. In her first race for Senate in 2002, only 9 GOP colleagues supported her campaign committe, totalling $10,700. There was an additional $1k from disgraced, sexually harassing former Sen. Bob Packwood of OR. Since her '02 election, only two of her colleagues have shown her financial support, Sen. Wayne Allard of CO, and Sen. Richard Shelby of AL, whose total contributions add up to a whopping $3k.

Given her disastrous stewardship of the NRSC and lame support of her fellow Senators and Republican candidates, I doubt she can expect any kind of enthusiastic support from ANY Republican in the Senate. Keep in mind that, thanks to Liddy, their ability to fundraise will be significantly affected by their new minority status.

Now, Sen. Dole. Are you really going to run for re-election given all of the crap you're gonna have to deal with? If you actually are going to, how about giving us the courtesy of a real statement. I don't think you can begin to make the case for why you should even attempt to mount a campaign for re-election.

LIDDY OUT IN '08

GOP DISASTER BREWING FOR '08

Senator Elizabeth Dole will NOT be a candidate for re-election in 2008, according to a confidential source on Capitol Hill. Apparently, she is completely demoralized following the stunning victory resulting in Democrats capturing the Senate. Six months ago, it was not much more than a pipe dream that Senator Chuck Schumer would lead his party to a majority in the upper chamber of Congress. However, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee is charged to have been badly run under Dole's leadership. It was reported last week that Dole penned a letter in an effort to retire the RSCC's debt from the 2006 election. Her underlings refused to actually say how much in the hole they went while squandering their majority in the Senate.

Now it's time for the scrambling of suitors. North Carolina is a Southern State that has resisted the massive Red conversion of other States below the Mason-Dixon Line. Is this another possible pick up for the Senate Dems?

Republicans already face a disaster in waiting in the next election for the Senate. The Republicans have 21 seats to defend and the Dems have only 11 incumbents to protect. And YES, I believe that ALL Democratic Senators will be seeking re-election. In alphabetical order, here are the hurdles that Republicans face in 2008.

Sen. Lamar Alexander: He lost his race for Minority Whip to racist, foot in mouth guy, Trent Lott. Harold Ford could capitalize on his much better than expected race this year and make a very credible run for this seat. Alexander isn't exactly a spring chicken either.

Sen. Wayne Allard: Word on the street is that he's retiring., thank God. Likely Dem nominee is Congressman Mark Udall, who should walk away with it.

Sen. Thad Cochran: Recent media reports say that the Dems are looking for a resurgent year in '08 in Mississippi. Two former Governors will team up to take the top two spots in State government from Gov. Haley Barbour and his number 2. Former Attorney General Mike Moore apparently will mount a strong challenge for the U.S. Senate seat. Sure sounds like a dream team to lead the ticket in a Southern State!

Sen. Norm Coleman: He won in '02 in a strange election which saw the death of liberal icon Sen. Paul Wellstone in a plane crash two weeks before the election. The political style speech by replacement candidate, former V.P. Walter Mondale at Wellstone's funeral apparently ticked off the voters of MN. However, the amazing performance of Amy Klobuchar in easily capturing the Senate seat in this year's election is pushing radio host/author Al Franken to a candidacy for Coleman's seat. Minnesota is a quirky state and likes maverick candidates, so this one could be a toss up too!

Sen. Larry Craig: He was recently reported by blogactive.com's Mike Rogers as being one of those closeted gay Republicans, providing specific details such as having sex in the bathrooms of Union Station. No one knows if this will have an effect on Craig or not. If he retires, the Dems could capitalize on recent victories in the region to pick up this seat.

Sen. Pete Domenici: Sounds like he is retiring too. Governor Bill Richardson would be a shoo-in for this seat. He served on the House side before. Don't they all aim for the more collegial Senate?

Sen. Lindsey Graham: He gets a mention because I'm from S.C. While Lindsey has been pretty well received across the board in S.C., there are two issues that could cause problems for what should be an easy sailing re-election. First, are the persistent rumors that he is gay. This has never been confirmed or denied. But, it's been tossed around bunches. Enough people know about it to tell us that, as long as you don't admit to being gay, then S.C. voters probably don't care about it. Second are rumors that he will face a strong, conservative primary challenge. Lindsey's actions, while applauded by folks across the country have angered the right wing in S.C. These people have mad influence in the Primary. This could be interesting to watch because a couple Dems have the ability to wage a campaign that could ultimately be successful against a right wing nut. Included in those Dems are my old boss, former Governor Jim Hodges, and two great people and friends, outgoing Ed. Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum and Dem. Lt. Gov. nominee Robert Barber.

Sen. John Sununu: New Hampshire had an awesome year for the Dems, picking up two Congressional seats and the State Legislature. Former Governor, Jean Shaheen narrowly lost this seat to Sununu in '02. If she chooses to make another un at it, I think she's the one to beat.

Given these circumstances, I think the Dems pick up a minimum of three seats. If we can show in the next year and a half that we know how to run government, then we can pick up as many as five seats. It's an early prediction, but take it to the bank!

Hell yeah!